AI Data Center Per-MW IRR Dashboard
v3
10Y horizon · per-year price paths · scenario save/load · GB300 NVL72 with BTM gas ·
View source on GitHub
Saved scenarios:
— select to load —
🗑
|
💾 Save current
|
⬇ Export JSON
⬆ Import JSON
🔗 Share URL
Preset scenarios
Bull IaaS
Bull Mgmt
Base
Bear
Vera Rubin Shock
Capex (US$M / MW)
GPU Capex
$30M
Other IT (network/CPU/storage)
$10M
DC + Power Plant
$19M
Revenue & Operations
Y1 Revenue/MW (IaaS)
$15M
Managed AI Premium
0%
Utilization
100%
Annual Opex
$1.1M
Y1-Y10 Price Path (per-year YoY %)
Flat 0%
-5%/yr
-10%/yr
Rubin Shock
Hopper-like
Price change per year (vs prior year)
Effective Revenue/MW per year
GPU Refresh option
Refresh Year
No refresh
0 = no refresh; Y5-Y7 = mid-cycle Vera Rubin upgrade
Refresh Capex (% of original GPU)
100%
Post-Refresh Revenue Boost
+50%
Residual & Discount
GPU Residual % (Y10)
5%
DC Shell Residual % (Y10)
40%
Discount Rate
10%
Key metrics
Total Capex (incl Refresh)
$59M
Effective Y1 Revenue
$15M
Cumulative Revenue 10Y
$150M
10Y Unlevered IRR
10%
NPV at chosen rate
$0M
Payback (years)
4.2
Year-by-year cash flow (Y0-Y10)
Year
$/GPU-hr equiv
Revenue
Opex
Refresh CX
Residual
Net CF
Cum CF
Sensitivity: Y1 Revenue × Avg Annual Decay → 10Y IRR
📋 Methodology + sources
Methodology:
NPV = Σ CF_t / (1+r)^t for t=0..10. IRR via bisection. Y0 = -capex; Y_n = revenue × util × Π(1 + price_change_yr_i) × (1+managed) - opex. Refresh year: subtract refresh capex, then revenue path resets with boost. Y10 includes GPU residual + DC shell residual.
Sources:
Crusoe slide (Stanford MS&E 435 Class #3, Spring 2026) — base capex/revenue assumptions; SemiAnalysis — gas plant cost benchmarks, GPU rental decay history; CoreWeave 10-K FY2025 (SEC EDGAR CIK 1769628, filed 2026-03-02) — 6-yr GPU life, 850 MW running, $5.1B revenue; 4-AI external review (Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.5, Grok 4.20, DeepSeek V4 Pro) — opex underestimation, residual realism, Vera Rubin transition.
Per-MW physical assumptions:
1 MW IT load ≈ 7-8 GB300 NVL72 racks ≈ 540 GPUs. Implied $/GPU-hr = revenue / 540 GPUs / 8760 hours.